The Chinese PLA Threat
Listen to "The Chinese PLA Threat"
China's People's Liberation Army is threatening to the United States Armed Forces because it is fighting a "People's War" (7 million Chinese troops vs. 2.5 million US troops) under "modern conditions" (China's GDP will exceed America's by 2011). China also has significant international backing from the UN, ASEAN, SCO, etc. Therefore, these two superpowers are destined to clash in some way.
For more information, read:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/index.html.
http://www.comw.org/cmp/.
Annual Report to Congress (2005): The Military Power of the People's Republic of China
The Asian Conventional Military Balance (2006)
Military History Podcast is sponsored by Armchair General Magazine and the International Research and Publishing Corporation
China's People's Liberation Army is threatening to the United States Armed Forces because it is fighting a "People's War" (7 million Chinese troops vs. 2.5 million US troops) under "modern conditions" (China's GDP will exceed America's by 2011). China also has significant international backing from the UN, ASEAN, SCO, etc. Therefore, these two superpowers are destined to clash in some way.
- When (analysis of each area is included in episode):
- Unconventional Warfare: US is way ahead
- Air Forces: US is ahead
- Naval Forces: US is ahead
- Ground Forces: US is ahead, but China is quickly catching up (this means that China will be able to fight regional conflicts but not global ones)
- Where (analysis of each area is included in episode):
- Taiwan
- Kazakhstan
- North Korea
- Middle East
- India
- Southeast Asia
For more information, read:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/index.html.
http://www.comw.org/cmp/.
Annual Report to Congress (2005): The Military Power of the People's Republic of China
The Asian Conventional Military Balance (2006)
Military History Podcast is sponsored by Armchair General Magazine and the International Research and Publishing Corporation
posted by George Hageman at 12:22 PM
13 Comments:
I am surprised that you did not point out that the threat of a war with China is almost impossible in the short term for economic reasons. Thanks to outsourceing of jobs, many day to day items are made in China, and any war would disrupt the traid, causing rapid lose of support on the homefront for lose of luxury items
Excellent broadcast, especially the insights into the Chinese navy. When 66% of your aircraft carrier fleet is being used as recreation, it is hard to take it seriously. Of course the gap is rapidly closing in other areas.
In response to Anonymous-- it was mentioned!
what about a comparison between US vs. Soviet and US vs. China threat.
Also, the title "The Chinese PLA Threat" is a bias that suggests China is aggressive.
In the thousands of years of history where China and India have been neighboring superpowers there has been no major conflicts at all.
This is because both sides subscribe to harmonious coexistence.
It would be more constructive to examine how America can understand that on a national cultural level.
excellent podcast
I think both states wouldn´t start a conflict for the next 2 decades.
In my mind the possibility of an "economical war" between them is more likely, as a fact of matter nowadays the economy of each state is merging.
But China won´t start any inprudent movements until they are equal to america. China also want to change their reputation from a communism isolated state to an accepted global player. So they won´t do anything, which might summon a crisis with the us.
PS: sry for any mistakes. I´m not well skilled in english
In response to anonymous - China and India fought a war in 1962:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War
I am all for cultural knowledge, but historical knowledge is also important.
Very interesting George.
Another way of considering the PLA and comparing it to the US military, air and naval forces is through the prism of asymetrical warfare.
You've put a very convincing case that the USA outweighs, outguns, outshoots, out powers the PLA in so many areas. Training, Aircraft carriers, fighters, bombers, value, food, etcetera, etcetera.
But what about Iraq? How many aircraft carriers have the insurgents got? How many APCs? How many tanks? How many fighter jets? How many flying bombers? What's the insurgents' training regemin? How does the insurgents' food compare to the US forces? What's the value of the insurgent "soldier" vs the US soldier?
The point I'm making is that God is not always on the side of the big battalions (I'm not making a religious point, just making a cultural reference to Voltaire).
I'm sure that the PLA are well capable of analysing what's going on in Iraq. No aircraft carriers being used by insurgents there, so maybe carrier power is not such a big thing as some people think.
I don't assume that armed conflict with the PLA will be conventional.
I listened to your dialog on the PLA and I think you missed some relevant points. Like the Russian army the PLA doesn't have any NCO's to speak of. That makes for a poor force. You also say that in 20 years they will have an air force similar ours. That would be only if we are static (or if Obama gets in). Massive large armies do not always win wars. So I'll take ours. Both really are paper tigers right now. But all this is predicated on China remaining in its present political form. I do not think that will happen. Russia and China will always be our enemies / competitors. But both will change governments in the next 20 years. Russia will regress as thugs take over and fight each other. Alcoholism will ruin the next few generations. Low birth rates. This will cause their economy to tank even worse than now. High Oil prices will only make for greater wealth divisions. China will have internal problems fueled by an information revolution. Pollution on gigantic scales, rampant corruption, no court system all point to unrest. The 3 gorges dam will be a disaster. The party will fragment and major turmoil will ruin the economy. But I could be wrong.
I have to disagree with your comment on the PLA being "innovative," particularly in the aerospace part of their military. If you study their aircraft designs you'll find a marked similarity between the airframe designs of the Chinese jets and US jets. This is because the Chinese activity infiltrate and steal everything they can from the US companies that are the true innovators in aircraft design. Fortunately, they have not been able to get the manufacturing trade secrets and other information that allows them to build the aircraft with the same degree of precision or the same avionics systems.
I have to disagree with your comment on the PLA being "innovative," particularly in the aerospace part of their military. If you study their aircraft designs you'll find a marked similarity between the airframe designs of the Chinese jets and US jets. This is because the Chinese activity infiltrate and steal everything they can from the US companies that are the true innovators in aircraft design. Fortunately, they have not been able to get the manufacturing trade secrets and other information that allows them to build the aircraft with the same degree of precision or the same avionics systems.
So the US thinks the PLA with 20 nm is a threat.In fact the US with 20000 repeat 20000 nm is the greater threat because it has threatened to use them . What the US want is a defenceless China like the 1950s to the early 90s. Then it could attack China with nuclear weapons without fear of retaliation.
Let me state categorically that if the US were ever to launch an attack on China,conventional/non conventional/nuclear,the PLA aint going to be like Iraq/kosovo.The counter attack of the PLA will give any sane US president time to ponder. Agreed the US will prevail but the level of destruction the PLA can give will increase day by day.
The US suffering from enemy deprivation is trying to paint China the next enemy.Otherwise many jobs in the Pentagon and defnce industries will be lost.The US public better note that US polticians with connections to the military industrial are trying to manufacture a war.
All this talk of defending freedom band the US is a smokescreen to let US forces attack defenceless states like Iraq and maybe Iran for its nw.
Only the US can have nw and the right to attack others.
I'm afraid a war with China will result in enormous destruction more for China and unacceptable damage to US. The level of destruction the PLA is going to dish out will increase to near mad. As it is the US has a monopoly of mad with regard to China.
Take note . I believe the PLA will build up the capability to inflict more unacceptable damage on the US as it modernises. The days of gunboat diplomacy will then be consigned to history with regard to China.
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